Un primer acercamiento al problema de decisión en emergencias, mediante tablas de pago: caso práctico aplicado en Tabasco, México

Abstract

The application of pay tables in a risk event can guide the judgment of decision makers to different alternatives to support the decision. Pay tables were generated as a first approach to the problem of decision to evacuate a population at risk of flooding; for this purpose was necessary to calculate the major costs involved in the process and determine the odds. Empirical formulas were applied for the costs of the event in the particular context and probabilities were determined by expert workshop. The study was applied in a scenario of flood occurred in the city of Villahermosa Tabasco, Mexico. The results show that the Maximum Possibility criterion is more sensitive to different amounts insured by death of people than the criterion of Maximum Expected Monetary Value.